Why are the Bookmakers so Generous?

As I worked my way from the back of the Racing Post the offers became ever more generous.

William Hill paying 9 places on the US PGA golf with top price on the top 20, Coral 10 places, then Skybet going 11 places before returning to the more sombre 8 places from bet365.

Why would they offer such generous terms? The same reason that they offer free bets to new accounts. To entice us to bet. The bookies have access to far more data than I’m ever likely to get hold of but they will know customer predilections, how much money they take prior to a tournament and how much in-running when the odds are harder to scrutinise and the margins far greater.

I imagine, for the most part, not too many people place just 1 bet prior to a tournament without a follow-up bet. If you are betting the tournament, you are likely to follow it closely and add to your portfolio of bets.

What better way to ensure you do so than offer a big place incentive? If you just back somebody to win the tournament the bet could seem lost relatively quickly but with 10 or so places running for you the interest can be maintained for much longer, and hence the opportunity for punters to add to their positions.

So that is why I think they do it. Now, is it a reasonable offer if viewed in isolation? I believe it is. The win odds for a player tend to be cut shorter than they really ought to be to compensate for this act of generosity, but the place element offers real value.

Starting with William Hill, I am using the odds as displayed in the Racing Post. Prices jump around but this is as close as I can get to comparing prices after the event has started.

They are 1/5 the odds 9 places. I have estimated using their prices and the ‘other entry’ prices giving a field of 153. The win book comes to 148% and the place book to 661%. Using a rough guideline that means I would stake £148 to return £100 on the win part and £661 to return £900 on the place element. The win part returns me 68% of my stake but the place gives a whopping 136% return, divide by 2 giving a 102 return for every 100 staked.

Skybet go 11 places. Their win book comes in at 164% and the place at 721%, so to offer the great place terms they have slammed the win component. By the same calculation it gives a return of 107 for every 100 stake.

The problem with both is that until you hit the win part you will be behind, so a lot of patience might be called for. Backing a 50/1 shot at 33/1 does not come across as a winning strategy but everything has its place.

The offers made by the bookmakers are still quite reasonable and we know why they are doing it – to tap into a large in-play market.