St Mirren 40/1 - £1036 Costly Draw for the Scottish Cup Semi-Finals

To obtain value, you need to find better prices than the real odds. When you do that there is still no guarantee that you'll win. Sometimes, even with the value locked away you need doses of good fortune to help you on your way.

The nature of the bet can dictate that too. I often back teams to win cup competitions. I factor in the possibilities to help me decide if a bet represents good value yet you can't cover all outcomes.

I backed St Mirren to win the Scottish cup each way at 40/1 and last night they reached the semi final. Standing in the way in the next round would be Celtic, Falkirk or Dunfermline so the draw was going to be crucial - just how crucial, I will now demonstrate.

Take a £100 each bet for St Mirren. By my calculations the value of the £200 stake had grown to £1287.

With each different team comes a different value figure after the draw.

To play Celtic the value would become £751.

Against Falkirk it becomes £1324.

If pitted with Dunfermline - the best case scenario - it hits £1787.

Best case versus worst case is a difference of a whopping £1036.

And the draw? Celtic v St Mirren!