Who will Win the World Snooker?

There is something magical about the world snooker championships. I have only been to the Crucible a couple of times, but it is unlike anything else on the circuit. Even without the crowds this year the tension is already building.

The first match had the possibility of starting with a 147 but it was not to be. Then O’Sullivan demolished his first opponent in double quick time and my initial set of fancied players all decided to get on their bikes and peddle home (assuming Maguire doesn't perform a minor miracle).

What is so fascinating is that if you asked people who they think they will win the title, the most obvious answer is Trump or O’Sullivan as born out by their prices at the top of the betting list.

The most likely final is these 2 playing each other but betting isn’t about simply picking the most probable result. It is about attaching a price to the possible outcomes. Everything points to Trump and O’Sullivan being priced up a bit too short. The bookies know who people like to back. Favourites are generally popular and are priced up with a bit of extra juice in the margin for the layer. The exchanges help keep the prices honest but if you’re not using that as your guideline then you won’t be able to see if the bookies are taking advantage.

At what point does a Trump or O’Sullivan represent value? You wouldn’t back them at odds on but maybe you would take 3/1 if it showed up at this stage but it’s not on offer.

You must factor in the whole globe’s experience from this year. How are players set coming into the tournament? What are their personal circumstances? How will they react to an empty arena?

A train of thought suggests that empty seats will encourage some of the lesser players to come through although O’Sullivan’s rush might suggest otherwise. I go for the notion that the players bubbling under might thrive under these circumstances. The evidence might not support me as Maguire, currently 7-2 down, and Allen are the type of player I am talking about but I’m picking 1 that I think has a live chance.

Kyren Wilson is available at 20/1 with Betfred at a half the odds to get to the final – a 10/1 shot – which I think is generous. If he were to make it all the way, then he would have played a mini tournament. Following his walkover against Hamilton he doesn’t start competition until the 8th August. Other players will already be 2 matches in. As to whether that helps or hinders is down to his mindset, but I think he is a chance worth taking. According to the odds he has a less than 1 in 10 chance of making the final and that makes him a value bet to me.

I do not mark my bets down as recommendations. This is an explanation of my thinking and I describe bets I have made or consider as value. Others can then make a reasoned assessment about what I have to say and make their own decisions accordingly.