The Weekend Review

Aston Villa v Liverpool has to be the starting point. It’s not the only curious result this season and I don’t like it. A stunning 3-2 victory would have sufficed for me, but 7-2!

Calculated odds for a result with that score line are around 100,000-1, easily dwarfing the 3,000-1 about Tottenham winning 6-1.

Liverpool put teams under pressure and it works. Yesterday the pressure went missing and the defence was left watching balls played in behind.  Admittedly some of the goals benefitted from deflections but Villa looked to have plenty of other chances as well.

It’s turned the Premier League betting into more of a contest. Liverpool and Man City were seen as the automatic 1-2 prior to this weekend but Everton, Tottenham, Leeds and Aston Villa are all being mentioned as potential champions if you look in the right place. At the time of writing you can lay Everton at 20, Tottenham at 23, Villa at 140 and Leeds at 160. On a price basis that appeals to me. The problem with it is it entails laying out a large stake to cover the potential losses. Do I want to lay out £1390 to give myself a chance of making £10 on Aston Villa? Not really, but if I can build a portfolio together then my layout decreases. Laying all 4 of them would be closer to 8/1 about any 1 of them winning it.

I notice Paddy Power have a few Tottenham trophy specials. They lay these at reduced odds and tell us that’s because of the contingency element – if they win the Premier League then they are more likely to win the FA Cup because they are the best team. I don’t really buy into that, but if we accept it, then perhaps they could offer slightly more generous odds on Tottenham to win the league and Man Utd to win the FA cup because that’s the opposite of contingent!

An example. To win the Premier League and the League cup, as I like to call it, is 55/1 for Tottenham. Personally I’d have them at about 33/1 to win the Premier League and 5/1 to win the league cup giving a double price of 203/1. Exchange decimals of 23 and 5.1 result in a double of 116/1. I think it’s less likely that they win both as it means more fixtures for them but, as soon as that bet is placed, your £1 has already more than halved in value. Stay clear of these specials from the bookies and just focus on 1 trophy at a time.

Switching briefly over to American Football. New England are without their quarterback and the price has drifted accordingly. Money traded at 4 and the price has now drifted to 6.6 on the exchange. It’s tough out there at the best of times and a reminder of a big question to ask ourselves as punters. How much do I know about what is going on? There’s likely to be somebody, somewhere who knows more or has more information than me. Make your bets when there is no haze, lack of information or misinformation unless you’re the one who can map your way through that haze.