F.A. Cup Update

What are the chances of making the cup draw, putting the balls back and then drawing the exact same draw next time? Virtually impossible, to the extent that I’d rather take my chances with the lottery and that’s what makes everything so fascinating. You’d need to be 16 factorial which gives more numbers than my calculator likes to use. Imagine a set of football matches being played one weekend. If you played the exact same fixtures the next day, you’d be nothing short of amazed if the same scores all came up, yet when we see the results, they mostly look predictable and that’s what punters are up against. We can rationalise things and make it appear to be the norm.

So, the 5th round draw was somewhat different to the previous round. The last round set up some heavyweight matchups. This time, the favourites have been handed more welcoming draws. Each way selections took a beating but I, like everybody else, can rationalise it. Ipswich were unlucky. 38 shots to 2, a goal conceded which should have been disallowed for a foul. Southampton came out with a replay but the way their price drifted before kick-off suggested they were on the way out already. The bottom line is that Ipswich and Everton are out regardless of perception and the draw simply compounded the woes for the each-ways, but not for Man City and Liverpool.

As I say, everything has its price and that’s why it’s useful to price up an event. It tells you where you think that price should be. Take Leicester as an example. I was prepared to back them each-way at 50/1 prior to the last round. Now, the majority have them at 33/1 (Corbrokes 50/1) but, even if you offered me 66/1 now, I’d pass on it. The draw was unfavourable to them, away to Bournemouth, and even success there would suggest they’re likely to meet one of the big boys after that. The same with Leeds and Southampton. Bigger prices of 66/1 and 125/1 hold no appeal as the draw has turned against them.

Meanwhile Man City and Liverpool have satisfactory draws. Adjusted prices of 12/5 and 4/1 are encouraging. I’d say they are still on the verge of value after the latest draw but as I’m loaded up on them, I’ll resist the temptation to go for more.

These were all prices on the Monday morning. Another observation is the benefit of getting in early. Coventry are a general 80/1 and yet Sunday night they were spotted at 125/1 with Betfred and 150/1 with Hills. A £1 each way winner at 80/1 would return £122 whereas at 150/1 that would pay £227, but nothing doing as 80/1 is too skinny.

I was at Notts County on Saturday in search of goals. Their matches average over 4 goals a game and the last time out they’d drawn 5-5 at Grimsby. It became apparent early on that this would be a bit tighter. Barrow came with 5 at the back, ready to pounce on any mistakes and could well have scored early doors. It highlights the challenges of breaking down a well-structured defence and in the end the game petered out to a 1-1 draw. Maybe County matches will be less goal laden now that Luke Williams has moved to Swansea. I’ll be watching Swansea’s results with interest and they’ve already had some goal filled matches.