Why Most Tipsters Can't Be Trusted

I recently spent time listening to the bookie bashing podcast Bashcast (212 and 213) where Tom Brownlee discussed a Twitter tipster under the name of Andy Robson.

What I heard was quite shocking. Are there really people out there as unscrupulous as this? The notion that some tipsters aren’t there to help the punter but are fronts to bolster the bookies’ coffers whilst earning more than a few bob for themselves sounds outrageous - but it’s not.

How do I know it’s true? It’s quite simple really.

I was directed to betting.betfair.com and up came Andy’s tips for the day.

They were.

Bologna 8/15

Stuttgart 8/15

Sheffield United 1/1

Athletico Madrid 2/5

The accumulator came to a decimal of 6.58 but got a little boost up to 6/1 (7.0 decimal) on the Betfair sportsbook. On the face of it this could be seen as a nice little acca at a decent price, but let’s look a bit closer.

Right along the Betfair sportsbook is the exchange itself. Prices are available for all these matches and because it’s the exchange the prices are all closer to being fair i.e. 100%.

The decimals I found for the back price were 1.67, 1.62, 2.16 and 1.52. An acca means we need to multiply these odds together to get the real price. The decimal comes in at 8.88.

On any one occasion this bet could win but that doesn’t change the fact that it represents really poor value. It’s staring us in the face. The real price is probably 8/1 as the prices I’ve chosen from the exchange are back prices and slightly over the fair 100%.

That means this type of bet will win on average around 1 in 9 times yet on the occasion it does win you’ll only get 7 back. Stake 9, get 7 back. Bad value. It’s that simple again.

I spotted the prices shortly before kick-off, so how did they get on? Well, 3 out of 4 came in and Athletico let the bet down. Somebody somewhere could argue that Athletico would win any other day and so the bet was unlucky but the reality is you’re just more likely to hit 3 winners rather than 4.

What if all the selections had won? Would it have made it inspired? The answer is still no as the real price was 8/1 when you’ve taken 6/1. That’s why accumulators are so popular with the bookies.

Note also what appears to make the bet credible. There’s a list of stats explaining why one team is better than the other but these stats are commonly available to everyone nowadays. It’s how you interpret the numbers that is important. Nowhere do you see what an estimate of a fair price is, so how can you possibly know if it’s value?  It’s a punt. Don’t be fooled.

I’ve always wondered how bookies are allowed to peddle their own prices anyway. They are there to make money, so why would I be interested in anything they want to recommend?  I certainly wouldn’t expect them to allow tipsters on to their site who are going to keep turning a profit.

If you want to have a bet, do your own homework, come up with your own prices or find a reputable source, just don’t be influenced by people who clearly don’t have your best interests at heart.