Premier League Relegation 25/26 Season

Now that Spurs have disposed of yet another manager this seems a good time to revisit the relegation market in the Premier league. There’s some nuance to it as well.

My calculated prices come out somewhat different from the trading prices on the exchange but it’s also a timely reminder why laying selections sometimes can be more beneficial than backing them.

Man City get a 0 rating for relegation in my model. There’s talk about massive points deductions which could lead to them being relegated. I see that as unlikely but by looking at market prices you can see this is not regarded as an impossible scenario. At some point they traded as low as 4.0 on the exchange. Recently they were at 20, yesterday out to 30 and today they are at 80. You could let somebody else back relegation for Man City at around 80/1. However unlikely I think that is, there is no way I’d ever do it. You need to know your market and I have absolutely no insight into what is going on and what could occur in the next few weeks as regards this case.

However, let’s view it from another angle. Wolves and Burnley are virtually down, miracles required to keep them up. That leaves one more place. If I back any of the remaining candidates down there and Man City get docked massive points, then to coin a phrase, I’ve done my dough.

What if I lay a team down there? Straight away, I have Man City running for me. A draconian points deduction should automatically turn the lay bet into a winner. Setting up a position this way gives me a potential edge.

My prices came out:

Palace 250.0

Leeds 12.0

Forest 7.3

Tottenham 3.65

West Ham 1.99

The only team that fulfills my price requirement is Tottenham as they are currently 2.9-2.94 and, of course, this appears to be a crazy selection. Their form is appalling at the moment, no manager in place and clearly heading for the trapdoor.

They are so bad yet I notice they are vying for favouritism in their next match, at Sunderland. Maybe I’ll lay them for relegation and lay them for the match. Just got to get the proportions right. A win and all will be seen as well, defeat and the gloom deepens, a draw and the jury is still out. At least this way you know Man City won’t be giving any nasty surprises.