Plymouth Prices

Part of betting is being able to get the best price.

If you back winners at 6/1 when the fair price is 8/1, you’ll ultimately be in negative territory.

Find winners at 10/1 when you should only be getting 8/1 and in the long run you will come out ahead.

Today I want to look at an unlikely outcome but, say you were keen to back it, which way should you go?

Plymouth to be promoted at 250/1.

Yes, I said unlikely, but this is about securing the best deal.

These prices are showing as available on the Monday.

Plymouth to win division 1000/1

Plymouth to finish in top 2 1000/1

Plymouth to be promoted 250/1

Plymouth to finish in top 6 50/1

Available to lay on Betfair is Plymouth to win the division £4 at 1000.0

First no-brainer. Don’t back Plymouth to win the division when you can get the same price about them finishing top 2.

Second thought.  Not a practical solution because of the money you’d need to lay out but…

If you had credit, you’d go to the exchange and lay Plymouth on the outright £4 at 1000, then back them for the same amount to finish top 2 at 1000/1. Free shot at them finishing second to the tune of £4k.

Trouble is, there’s no credit and to carry out this masterplan would mean laying out £3996(4*999) to cover your liability.

Returning to which is the best option.

I could place £13 on them to be promoted at 250/1 or go £3 top 2 at 1000/1 with £10 to finish top 6.

£13 to be promoted would give £3250 profit if they finished top 2.

Here’s where there’s an element of judgement called for. What price to be promoted if they finished in the play-offs? I’d say around 9/1 on the basis that they will still be seen to have overperformed and be massive underdogs in the knockout stage.

So, in the playoffs I reckon the value of the bet could be around £326 (250/1 divided by 9/1, 251/10)

Go the other route.

Finishing top 2 would provide £3500 profit, ending up in the play-offs gives you a payday of plus £497 and you don’t need to worry about whether they get promoted or not.

Your bet is concluded but if you wanted to play again you have near enough £500 to place on them for promotion.

Route 1 would give £3250 for promotion and you have £497 to play with.

(3250+497) / 497 = 7.54 pretty close to 13/2 which gives you an answer.

If you think they will be shorter than 13/2 then you’d choose taking the 250/1 for promotion instead of the 50/1 for a top 6 finish.

My view is that they would probably be much bigger than that, so if I were betting on them, I’d choose a small wager on top 2 at 1000/1 and bung the rest on top 6 at 50/1 to get the best bang for my buck.

Until next time!