Guided by the Stats

It’s Happening At Wembley But It’s Also Happening At Wigan

Posted in Football

Will England win the Euros? Will Wigan gain promotion from League One? Which question would I prefer to talk about?

If ever there is a game where I do not need to have a bet, it must be England v Italy in a European Championship final.

For me, the two best teams – not necessarily the best players - have arrived at the right place.

I sense that Italy might have a slight edge pound for pound, but home advantage could count for a great deal at this point. Emotions are so high and in a game like this you need the ball to run in your favour. England were the stronger team against Denmark but still needed certain incidents to go their way. Our penalty was the type that I have enjoyed seeing not being given in this tournament. Because it was England it suddenly seemed less dubious but with another football on the pitch the game could have been stopped before that point and the penalty was saved by Schmeichel before Kane netted the rebound.

So many things can influence the outcome so I won’t be having a bet to heighten the excitement of this game.

While the Euros have been going on there have been significant developments at Wigan.

On Wednesday I headed to the shops to pick up the 20/1 about Wigan winning League One and the 6/1 for them to be promoted. I managed to get £50.

Turns out Charlie Wyke had just signed for them, and the price collapsed. That was not why I had set out for them, though.

One of the additions to the squad has been Ben Amos from Charlton and that was what created my interest. There is a lot happening behind the scenes that we never hear anything of, but this struck me as significant. Charlton only just missed out on the play-offs last season after a new owner arrived and provided stability at the club. This season they will be hoping to push on, so why sign for a struggling side that just avoided relegation last time out?

Perhaps because Wigan have new owners and there is a serious budget to pay the players’ wages. Clubs that survive administration often come out much stronger with the right benefactors and maybe this is what is going on here.

Certainly, the players added to the squad to date strike me as top end League One calibre, so a bit of my money has headed into Wigan outright at 20/1 and Wigan to be promoted at 13/2. Unfortunately, by the time I arrived in the shops on my latest sojourn the 20/1 was just about being wiped off the boards so 12/1 outright and 4/1 promotion are the best I now see. Being a cautious kind of guy, I am going to leave the 12/1 but have continued to add the 4/1 for promotion into my early portfolio ready for the forthcoming season.

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