FA Cup Quarter-Finals

Jobs I’d like to have. Setting inflation targets at the Bank of England. Being the fourth official at a football match.

I know some of these jobs aren’t easy – they just appear that way.

Sometimes I look at things and wonder how difficult they are.

Being a bookmaker falls into that category nowadays. Get rid of business you don’t like and encourage the losing money into the market.

When you get it wrong it doesn’t really matter. Restrict the amount that punters are allowed and change your price.

So, today I was looking for early prices on the FA Cup quarter finals.

On Betfair I could lay Man City at 1.38 v Newcastle. I thought I’d have a look to see who else was quoting. Bet365 had Man City at 8/13, the equivalent of around 1.62 in decimals.

Wow. I went off to check that this discrepancy really existed. Yes, it did. Back I came to have a look at Bet365, and the match had disappeared. Soon after, it returned. It was now 4/9 – a decimal of 1.44, so interestingly still above the Betfair price.

Why am I saying this? After all, it’s not like I can get a bet on with them as they have banned me. Sorry, I must always correct myself. They’ve restricted me so that, last time I checked, I was allowed to bet 50p with them. No joke.

They finally got into line at 1/3 – decimal 1.33.

Yes, there was an opportunity to grab a better price, but you can only do that so often until they restrict the account.

And getting value prices is the only guaranteed long term strategy to make it pay. Paddy Power went 12/1 Chelsea to win the FA Cup before the last round, cut it to 10/1 and then the day the last 16 started went 17/2. Some would argue that it doesn’t matter about the price. After all, a winner is a winner but that is a recipe for losing.

I nicked a bit of the 12/1 (each way) and now they are up against my 50/1 Leicester but look at the value argument this way. It’s not just about the outcome of 1 bet. It’s a long-term process. Let’s say the real price for Chelsea was 9/1. That’s a 10% chance, so over a period you will win an average of 1 in 10 bets. Taking odds of 12/1 will give you an average return of £13 for your 10*£1 stake. A profit.

If you take 17/2 every time your average return will be £9.50. A loss.

So, getting the best price is important but getting the value is crucial as that makes the difference between winning and losing.

As usual I’ve priced up my FA Cup outright book.

Man City 11/8

Liverpool 10/3

Chelsea 13/2

Man Utd 12/1

Wolves 16/1

Newcastle 22/1

Leicester 40/1

Coventry 115/1

Those are my prices, but things can fluctuate. Liverpool at Man Utd could see some price shifts if the last round is anything to go by. Liverpool opened at around 1.31 against Southampton, drifted to about 1.69 before shortening again to 1.45 at kick-off. Oh, to have an inside track on team information!