FA Cup Final - Time To Hedge

Man City are through to the final, backed at 10/3 early doors. More about them in a minute.

Luck. Yes, I want to talk about good and bad fortune again. It’s all around us, certainly in more crunch situations than betting on football but let’s see how this one played out.

I’d added Chelsea to the portfolio at 12/1 each way and things were looking rosy. The other each-way bets were taken out one by one. The quarter finals were nearly done. Man City, Chelsea and Coventry were through. That left Man Utd v Liverpool.

Victory for Liverpool suited my position massively and would have given me the big three and Coventry, allowing an easy hedge.

Liverpool looked in control at Man Utd. What could go wrong? A Man Utd recovery followed by them being pitted against Coventry in the semi. That’s exactly what happened, and the pricing altered dramatically.

Man Utd went through but imagine if they had been pitched against Man City in the semi.

They would have turned into more like a 9/1 shot on the outright instead of closer to 3/1 and Chelsea’s price to get to the final would have moved from 4/1 to closer to 1/6. All without a ball being kicked!

Regardless of all that it’s fair to say we are where we are. We’re always where we are but you want that position to be a good position – and it is.

The losses will be big if Man Utd take the trophy but there’s plenty of paper profit in the Man City trade and now is the time to take it out.

Of course, Man City are favourites and are expected to win but if all jollies won there would be no markets. United can be backed at 5/1 on the exchange and that strikes me as a really decent hedge. It’s a cup final and a Manchester matchup and I just wouldn’t be quite so short about Man City. To keep out of trouble I’d go around 12 points at 5/1 United to take the trophy and to balance my portfolio take an extra couple of points which means I can then sit down and purely enjoy the match.