European Championships 2020

Pick a tournament with so many imponderables and find the winner.

Transferring from club football to international matches is always a challenge. Add in factors such as Covid, the weather, the different venues and a tournament played in June after an already difficult year and there is enough uncertainty to last a whole football season.

Support has been coming in for Italy, Portugal, Denmark, and Switzerland. Netherlands is friendless with England and Belgium on the drift. Last week Italy and Netherlands were ranked almost side by side, yet currently Italy are 9.4 and Netherlands 20 on the exchanges.

France is steady. I always grab a copy of the Racing Post when they do their tournament previews. There is a power ranking article which has France at the top of the list. Out of 11 factors they top the ratings in 5 of them. The only bit holding their ranking down is draw difficulty. Without that they would be way clear of everybody else, and it is a tough draw.

Not only are they in the group with Germany and Portugal but these games are away. Same applies to Portugal. Two away matches and then a match with France to finish off.

Hungary is 9/2 to qualify which tells you that the three big teams are still well fancied to progress. I am 4/1 Hungary so that could be construed as value, but I am happy to watch that group and pay attention to the finishing order which will impact on the draw.

I have been in the shops over the last few days and some of the deals on offer are not bad. We need to find prices that represent value – that is, the bookie’s odds are greater than the fair value.

Paddy Power have been offering enhanced prices on the outright. A couple of days ago they went 13/2 France for a maximum stake of £20. That was a price worth taking and a useful reminder of why we need to grab the value.

If I am the punter taking 13/2 on 5/1 shots, then on average I will return £150 for every £120 staked, yet if I am the one taking 4/1 then my returns will be £100 for every £120 staked. When the winner arrives, we are both winners, except we are not. The person taking the poor odds has just cut their losses back whilst the one taking the value has turned a sustainable profit.

This leads me on to what I consider a piece of generosity by Betfred, available in shops and online according to the adverts. 2/1 Scotland to qualify from group D to a maximum stake of £100.

Deals like this need to be accepted. Will they qualify? I do not know but I have priced it up and make them around a 6/5 shot, so if somebody wants to offer me 2/1 then I will take it.

Some bookies are going 4/6 that they do not qualify so arbitrage opportunities exist but if you are in a Betred shop or online, take that bet and you can hedge it if you want.

I happen to think the 4/6 price is not great. Scotland are 2/1 to beat Czech Republic, which could be enough to get them through, but if they do not win that they still have two more, admittedly tougher opportunities to get those point on the board.

The intrigue for me comes as the tournament progresses. The draw is crucial for teams’ chance of progression, and I will update all my prices after each set of games but for the time being I will secretly drape my Tartan flag.